Global Warming May Shorten Route to Asia

Here are notes I took during Drewry’s Lecture on the new efforts to discover a short route from Europe to Asia along the Arctic Ocean.

North to Asia
Arctic Transport in the 21st Century
David J. Drury, Polar Scientist, University President

Shipping Along Arctic Northern Sea Route

Early Explorers
Vikings-made colony at Archangel in White Sea
British sent John Cabot to seek a Northwest Passage to China
Willoughby/Chancellor-British formed the Merchant Adventurers Company to seek Northeast Passage to China
Passed North Cape of Norway over to Archangel. Willoughby was lost, but Chancellor was Invited to Moscow by Ivan the Terrible
Merchant Adventurers company becomes tho Muscovy Co.
Barent-Dutch
Three voyages to Novaya Zemlya
Vitus Bering-Went to Kamchatka by land. Boarded ship and opened the Bering Strait
Nordenskjold-Swedish. 1878-79. First through NE Passage. Trapped by ice for a year
Problems—
Sea Ice
Severe Storms
Long dark winters, nights, navigation issues
Early Russian Development
Trans-Siberian Railway
Hydrographic surveys 1910-15 (von Toll)
Telegraph & meteorological stations
Icebreakers (Yermak) Built in Newcastle upon Tyne in 1898. Decommissioned in 1968
Murmansk established in 1916 to meet Russia’s WW1 need for an ice-free port
Soviet Era
Communist committee tasked for Northern Sea Route. Otto Schmidt, Director
Stalin encourages growth-built Dikson and other towns
Post WW2—Enormous growth in NE traffic
Discovery of oil in West Siberian Plain
Icebreakers—no cargo, led convoy of cargo ships. Some nuclear powered.
Post Soviet Era
Gorbachev favored cooperation with the West,
Set up the Northern Sea Route for international traffic
It all went sour after Yeltsin
Today
Until 2018 NE route was operated by Rosatom
Operations out of Murmansk
Building 10 relief ports
Lowering operating costs
Reducing ice class regulations
714 employee-
Building new nuclear Ice Breakers
Dry docks at Murmansk
Nuclear power cargo vessels
Opening to the West
Started in 2009
Voyage by Northeast Arctic route saves €300 million/year compared to Suez Canal
Now China builds ships to use Northern Sea Route. 16% of traffic was Chinese in 2021
Greatest Destination—China
Now after February 2022 almost all the cargo is Russian
Lots of Liquid Natural Gas came to Europe from city of Yamaha, now has stopped
Climate Change
Temps in Siberia are rising. Sea ice is retreating and thinning.
Period northern route can be used each year is increasing
Future
The Polar route may be available in 20-30 years. Not controlled by the Russians.
Possible Chinese-Russian conflict over the Northern route
Questions about the legal status of the Northern route
Is it international waters?
How far out does Russia control?
Will Russia contest ships using far north Polar route?
Instability in the Middle East makes the Northern Arctic Route more attractiveRead more